Liquidity decline at the end of 2025 triggers a contrast: silver volatility soars, surpassing Bitcoin

As the end of 2025 approaches, global market liquidity has noticeably declined, but the trends of Bitcoin and silver are showing completely different signals. The latest volatility data indicates that, amid light trading activity, silver’s market volatility has significantly surpassed that of Bitcoin, attracting investor attention.

Over the past month, Bitcoin’s 30-day annualized realized volatility has continuously narrowed to around 40%, indicating that the market remains in a range-bound state with no clear direction. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin’s current 30-day realized volatility is approximately 45%, below its 365-day average of 48%. Although this level is still relatively high compared to traditional blue-chip assets, it appears relatively moderate compared to silver.

In stark contrast is silver. Influenced by rapid price increases, expanding spot premiums, and global precious metal supply tensions, silver’s realized volatility has risen to about 50%. The year’s performance has also shown a clear divergence: so far, silver prices have increased by over 151% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has fallen nearly 7%.

The sharp volatility in silver mainly stems from supply and demand imbalances. On one hand, industrial demand for silver continues to grow due to solar panels, electric vehicles, electronic components, and battery technologies; on the other hand, mineral supply growth has been limited and unable to expand in tandem. Additionally, China has implemented a license system for silver exports since January 1, further tightening market expectations for silver spot supply. Currently, silver prices in Shanghai and Dubai are about $10 to $14 higher than COMEX futures prices, and the London forward curve also shows a significant spot premium, indicating potential supply shortage risks.

In contrast, Bitcoin’s price has fallen nearly 30% from the October high of $126,000. The market generally attributes this decline to factors such as slowed inflows into US spot ETFs, waning enthusiasm for DAT concepts, and the sharp drop on October 10th that triggered automatic deleveraging, which has been a major factor suppressing Bitcoin’s price.

QCP Capital’s latest report points out that recent Bitcoin movements are more reflective of “mechanical factors” such as holiday liquidity decline and concentrated option expirations, rather than a fundamental shift in market sentiment. After a large number of options expired, about 50% of open contracts were cleared, with funds entering a wait-and-see mode, making the price direction more uncertain.

Market forecasts also confirm this divergence. Data shows that traders generally expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound in the short term, with about a 70% probability of holding above $86,000 before early January, and less than a 25% chance of breaking above $92,000. Overall, in the year-end market, the volatility comparison between silver and Bitcoin has become an important window into structural market changes.