The price of Solana could surge to $200 depending on this significant change in the network

Network growth, trader positioning, and stable development activities are key factors determining whether Solana (SOL) can approach the $200 by 2026 mark or not.

Major Challenge for Solana’s Breakout

The debate about SOL’s potential price increase currently relies not only on technical charts but also on real-world network usage. According to the latest data from Santiment, the rate of new wallet creation on the Solana ecosystem has decreased significantly.

Specifically, in November 2024, the network recorded up to 30.2 million new wallets in just one week. However, this number has now dropped to only 7.3 million new wallets per week.

This decline is particularly important because network growth is often a precursor to sustainable bullish cycles. Recently, the price of SOL has approached the $144 and is facing resistance at $145.

Santiment states that to convincingly surpass this threshold, the Solana network needs to restore its growth momentum in activity.

Solana Network Activity | Source: SantimentNotably, SOL’s price rallies, if not accompanied by an increase in users, are often difficult to sustain long-term. The decrease in new wallets reflects a slowdown in attracting users, traders, and developers.

This does not mean the network is weak, but indicates that the momentum has diminished compared to late 2024.

The market is closely watching to see if this trend will reverse. If the number of new wallets increases again, it will signal renewed interest from the trading community, decentralized finance, and related applications.

Conversely, if there is no change, SOL’s price rally will depend more on short-term capital flows rather than long-term demand.

Santiment’s view is quite clear: SOL’s price can definitely go higher, but to maintain strength, the participation of new users is necessary.

With SOL’s price just below an important resistance zone, this indicator becomes one of the key signals for the market’s next move.

Technical Analysis Reinforces Confidence in SOL’s Uptrend

Although network data shows cautious signs, the market structure offers a more positive outlook.

Altcoin Sherpa, a market analyst, states that the SOL price chart is very solid and continues to lead among major assets. He particularly highlights that the exponential moving averages (EMA) on the 4-hour timeframe are in the healthiest state since September 2025.

According to Altcoin Sherpa, the current setup is even clearer than previous rallies. He mentions that he is prioritizing large-cap assets over high-risk tokens until the market establishes a clear trend.

Solana Price Forecast | Source: Altcoin SherpaThis analyst also confirms holding a long-term buy position in SOL, showing confidence in the coin’s underlying strength.

Stable moving averages typically reflect sustainable buying pressure rather than sudden price spikes. This will support SOL’s price if overall market conditions remain stable.

However, relying solely on technical factors is not enough for SOL to reach $200. Professional traders usually wait for confirmation from on-chain data, trading volume, and user growth.

The current setup shows confidence but still depends on Solana attracting more new activity from the community.

Growing Ecosystem: Foundation for the Next Growth Phase

Beyond price and chart factors, Solana’s developing ecosystem continues to make solid progress. In the first week of 2026, the Solana team reported several notable achievements across finance, tools, and applications.

Most notably, Morgan Stanley filed an S-1 with the SEC to launch a Solana ETF, marking a significant legal and financial milestone.

Wyoming also issued FRNT, considered the first stablecoin issued by a US state on the Solana platform.

Ranger Finance’s ICO on MetaDAO attracted over $86 million commitments, demonstrating strong appeal for new projects.

New products launched include Jito’s IBRL Explorer for validator performance monitoring, Jupiter Exchange’s JupUSD stablecoin, and Birdeye’s Smart Money tool for tracking high-profit wallets.

Solana Mobile also achieved impressive activity with $2.6 billion in trading volume, 9 million transactions, and 265 applications in its first season.

These updates show that developers remain passionate and innovative despite the slowdown in new wallet growth. Security tools, stablecoins, exchanges, and lending platforms continue to expand.

Essentially, the community’s persistent efforts form a solid foundation for Solana to enter a new growth phase if user activity resumes.