Trading Time: Gold, silver, and A-shares dance together, BTC advances from 94,500 to 98,000

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Although the latest US core inflation data shows signs of cooling, falling to a four-year low of 2.6%, this has not changed the market’s general expectation that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June this year. Federal Reserve officials seem to need more evidence of a weakening labor market or sustained easing of price pressures before considering adjusting monetary policy, leading to a rapid fade of initial optimism from inflation data, pressure on US stocks, and a strengthening dollar.

In this uncertain environment, precious metals as “systemic risk hedging” tools are becoming increasingly prominent. Spot gold temporarily hit a historical high of over $4,639, while silver was even more bullish, first touching the $91 mark, with a total market value surpassing $5 trillion, overtaking Nvidia to become the second-largest asset globally. Market analysis suggests that this round of rally is more about re-pricing the ambiguous monetary policy outlook, deepening fiscal dominance, and geopolitical risks. Several institutions responded positively, with ANZ Bank predicting gold prices will break through $5,000 in the second half of 2026, and Citigroup raising their target price for the next three months to $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver. VanEck analysts even used models to project that under the hypothetical return to the gold standard globally, the “real” price of gold would be far above current levels.

The A-share market experienced its first decline after 17 consecutive days of gains following January 13, and January 14 was even more dramatic. The market continued its strength in the morning, with the three major indices opening high collectively, the ChiNext index once up over 2%, and the STAR Market 50 index soaring over 4%. The market showed a broad rally, with over 4,700 stocks rising, hundreds hitting daily limit-ups, especially in sectors like AI applications, semiconductors, and commercial aerospace. However, in the afternoon, a sudden turn occurred when a notice about increasing the minimum margin ratio for financing from 80% to 100% on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges triggered a brief market plunge, with indices turning red and the number of advancing stocks sharply decreasing. This move aims to reduce market leverage through counter-cyclical regulation, protect investors, and promote long-term stability.

After the CPI data release, Bitcoin successfully broke through several key resistance levels at $92,000, $94,000, and approached $96,500. Michaël van de Poppe and Ali Charts both believe the bull market has started. The former pointed out that BTC has effectively stabilized above the 21-day moving average and expects to challenge $100,000 next week, while the latter indicated that breaking through the $94,555 resistance could target $105,921; additionally, analysts Ardi, Sykodelic, and Astronomer all see $94,500 as a critical support line for bulls. Ardi emphasized that as long as this support holds, it will clear out the $96,500–$97,200 range and aim for $100,000, while Astronomer noted that the spot discount in the $80,000–$85,000 range has turned into a premium, a strong bullish signal, with subsequent targets at $112,000 and new all-time highs.

Cautious voices should not be ignored either. Murphy’s on-chain data analysis indicates the market is in a weak equilibrium of “emotion repair + low selling pressure” but “demand insufficient,” with $98,000 as the short-term holder’s cost basis being the true “bull-bear dividing line,” requiring strong US-based capital intervention to break through. Tradermayne believes there is a 70% chance of forming a secondary high unless it stabilizes above $105,000, otherwise there remains a bear market risk. CrypNuevo and CJ worry that this is merely liquidity grab at the low-efficiency zones around the 10,000 and $97,000 levels, cautioning against false rallies followed by declines.

Ethereum, after responding to key support levels, is attempting to break through and stabilize above $3,300, but has failed multiple times in the past two months. Bitcoin analyst Man of Bitcoin states that a successful break above $3,300 would confirm the validity of its bullish roadmap. Investors like Jelle and Max point out that with the Russell 2000 index reaching new highs, the market environment favors ETH’s catch-up, and if it can hold the key support, $4,000 will be the next core target. Derivatives data shows ETH holdings are rebounding while leverage is decreasing, often a sign of healthier market structure and spot buying leading the recovery. Despite short-term disruptions from Layer 2 flows and DApp activity declines, ETH is expected to rally after Bitcoin stabilizes.

As the market warms up, Solana has attracted attention due to its “cup and handle” pattern on the daily chart. Analysts believe its price structure indicates a potential breakout toward $180–$190, and the spot SOL ETF has continued to record net inflows in 2026, boosting bullish confidence. inscriptions tokens like ORDI and SATS also gained over 20%. Meme coins are making a comeback, with PEPE, WIF, BONK, and others surging. In the privacy coin sector, Monero (XMR) hit a new high above $700, leading DASH and similar tokens to rally over 30%. Additionally, Binance’s Meme tokens showed mixed performance: the “dark horse” surged to a market cap of $15 million before falling back to $11.6 million, with a 500% increase, while the “Old Man” declined, with market cap shrinking to $8 million, down 35% in 24 hours. In contrast, “Binance Life” became the biggest winner, with market cap soaring to $289 million, hitting a new all-time high, with on-chain unrealized gains exceeding $2.63 million and a return of 1543 times. Some analysts believe “Binance Life” could become a sentiment indicator for altcoins on the Binance platform. (*Note: Content for reference only, not investment advice, please conduct your own research.)

2. Key Data (as of January 14, 13:00 HKT)

(Data sources: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $94,942 (+8.8% YTD), daily spot trading volume $68.7 billion
• Ethereum: $3,334 (+12.1% YTD), daily spot trading volume $36.11 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 12.1%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, IP, ETH, SOL
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 51.20% / 48.80%
• Sector gains/losses: Overall crypto market up, NFT and GameFi sectors lead with over 8% increase

24-hour liquidation data: total 104,179 traders liquidated, total liquidation amount $601 million, with BTC liquidations at $262 million, ETH at $171 million, SOL at $30.86 million.

3. ETF Flows (as of January 13)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$754 million, all twelve ETFs show no net outflows
• Ethereum ETF: +$130 million, all nine ETFs show no net outflows
• XRP ETF: +$12.98 million
• SOL ETF: +$5.91 million

4. Today’s Preview

• Tom Lee urges BitMine shareholders to approve the proposal to increase authorized shares from 500 million to 50 billion before January 14
• BSC mainnet Fermi hard fork scheduled for upgrade on January 14, 2026
• Binance to launch FOGO spot trading on January 15, marked with seed label
• MANTRA: All ERC20 versions of OM will be deprecated on January 15, please migrate promptly
• Aster: Phase 3 airdrop now open, deadline January 15, 2026
• US Supreme Court postpones ruling on Trump’s tariffs case, next decision on January 14
• Federal Reserve releases “Beige Book” on economic conditions (January 15, 03:00)

Top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap with the biggest gains today: Dash +32.7%, Story +30.7%, Pepe +13.5%, Optimism +12.7%, Internet Computer +12.3%.

5. Hot News

• Corporate crypto treasury holdings increased by about 260,000 BTC in the past 6 months, triple the amount mined during the same period
• OpenSea Foundation preparing for TGE, considering historical trading volume and Treasures data
• “Binance Life” top address unrealized gains exceed $2.63 million, return rate over 154,341.1%
• DN token down over 80% in 24 hours, DeepNode responds: “Working with market makers to resolve liquidity issues”
• Spot silver approaches $90, hitting new highs
• Bitmine pledges 94,400 ETH again, worth $314 million
• Zama to launch token sale via CoinList and its own auction app, FDV base price $55 million
• SharpLink staking yields reached 500 ETH last week, total yield surpassing 11,000 ETH
• Spot gold above $4,620/oz, spot silver up over 3.00% intraday
• US December unadjusted CPI YoY at 2.7%, core CPI YoY at 2.6%
• On-chain part-time retail investors convert to on-chain gold holdings, with positions reaching $13 million