Trader bets 40,000 USD on Polymarket that the US will not attack Iran on January 15

A trader on the Polymarket prediction platform went against market trends by betting $40,000 that the US would carry out an airstrike on Iran before the deadline of January 14th US time, which is noon on January 15th Vietnam time.

According to a post published at 20:14 on January 15, 2026 (Vietnam time), a new account on Polymarket deposited $40,000 and allocated the entire amount to the scenario of the US attacking Iran within a very short timeframe. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is reportedly considering military options against Iran, with preparations possibly taking place within a few hours or days, while Iran has closed its airspace to all civilian flights.

Data from Polymarket Analytics shows that trader with the nickname “mutualdelta” has only opened one position for the January 14th contract. At the time of writing, the market prices this scenario at about a 9% chance of occurring, making the bet currently over $20,000 in loss. However, if the airstrike is confirmed before midnight Eastern US time (which is around 12:00 noon on January 15th Vietnam time), this trader will win the entire contract.

Overall, bettors on Polymarket believe that some form of US military action will occur in the first half of this year, but the specific timing remains uncertain. As of the evening of January 14th US time (morning of January 15th Vietnam time), the market estimates a 65% probability that the US will strike Iran before the end of the month, increasing to 74% if considering until June 30th.