Zcash privacy coin rebounds! Can the symmetrical triangle breakout push it past $1000?

Zcash (ZEC) rose about 5.5%, reaching a high of nearly $449 during the session. The rebound was driven by privacy coins rotation, as Monero (XMR) and Dash (DASH) retraced over 13% and 14%, respectively, indicating a flow back into privacy tokens. The ZEC/XMR pair held above the 50-week moving average support, with a symmetrical triangle pattern completing. A breakout above the upper trendline could reignite the $1,000 target, while a break below the lower boundary risks a move down to $200.

Privacy Coins Rotation Sparks ZEC Rebound

(Source: Trading View)

In the past 24 hours, Zcash has stabilized. The privacy coins rotation that earlier propelled Monero and Dash higher this week is beginning to lose momentum. The ZEC/USD pair gained about 5.50% today, reaching a high of approximately $449 intraday. Nonetheless, it remains over 20% below its January high of $535.69.

The rebound coincided with XMR and DASH prices pulling back from recent highs. Earlier this week, amid escalating governance issues with Zcash, traders sold off ZEC, causing these two privacy assets to surge 45% and 138%, respectively. Both Monero and Dash’s RSI broke above 70, entering overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of short-term profit-taking. Monero dropped over 13.50% from its recent high of around $800, while Dash retraced 14.22% from an intraday high of $88.39.

This kind of capital rotation among privacy coins is typical in crypto markets. When a coin surges due to specific events or technical breakthroughs, RSI enters overbought zones, prompting profit-taking. Funds don’t leave the privacy sector entirely but flow into similar assets that haven’t yet surged. Zcash benefited from this rotation, especially after the SEC ended its investigation into Zcash without charges, providing a fundamental support. This news attracted funds that had exited XMR and DASH.

From a sector rotation perspective, privacy coins as a whole remain in an upward cycle, with internal capital reallocating among different targets. After the SEC closed its investigation, Zcash gained the label of “compliant privacy coin,” giving it a competitive edge amid increasingly strict regulatory environments. Compared to fully anonymous Monero, Zcash’s “selective privacy” mode leaves room for regulatory compliance, which may be a deeper reason why funds are starting to favor ZEC.

Key Support Levels for ZEC/XMR Ratio

As of Thursday, the ZEC/XMR ratio attempted to stay above its 50-week EMA (~0.57). This week’s candlestick shows a clear pullback from that level (low near 0.56), followed by a close back around that level (~0.60), indicating the short-term trend is not yet fully bearish.

However, the rebound is still in early stages. The pair remains well below its 20-week moving average (~0.83), so current movement should be viewed as support defense rather than a confirmed trend reversal. If the price can hold above the 50-week EMA and continue to strengthen, market focus will shift toward the 0.80–0.85 zone (20-week MA). Conversely, if the price falls below 0.57, it could test the 200-week MA near 0.51.

Three Major Technical Levels for ZEC/XMR Ratio

50-week MA at 0.57 USD: Critical support; holding above supports defense, breaking below signals weakening trend.

20-week MA at 0.83 USD: Mid-term trend threshold; a breakout confirms Zcash relative strength against Monero.

200-week MA at 0.51 USD: Long-term support bottom; touching this level indicates serious relative weakness for Zcash versus Monero.

If ZEC/XMR continues to strengthen and XMR cools off, then, assuming overall market stability, this relative buying interest could translate into ZEC/USD retesting or surpassing $450 in the short term. The ratio’s significance lies in stripping out overall market volatility, purely reflecting the relative strength between the two privacy coins. When ZEC/XMR rises, even if BTC and ETH decline, ZEC may still rally due to capital flowing from XMR.

Historically, the ZEC/XMR ratio peaked above 1.2 during the 2021 bull market, indicating Zcash’s value temporarily exceeded Monero’s. If the ratio can break above the 0.83 20-week MA and continue upward, Zcash could challenge Monero’s dominance in the privacy coin space again. This shift in relative strength reflects not only price but also market preference between fully anonymous vs. optional privacy models.

Symmetrical Triangle Pointing to $1,000 or $200

From a technical perspective, after ZEC/USD surged to nearly $775 in November—its multi-year high—it has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle. This pattern reflects a period of compression, with lower highs squeezing against rising support levels, following a strong upward move that has narrowed volatility.

Symmetrical triangles are typically continuation patterns, meaning a breakout often follows in the direction of the prior trend. Given ZEC’s strong rally before entering this pattern, a confirmed breakout above the triangle’s upper trendline could support further gains, potentially reopening the path toward $1,000 in Q1 2026. This target is based on measuring the height of the triangle and projecting upward from the breakout point.

Conversely, a decisive break below the triangle’s lower boundary would invalidate the pattern, leading to a deeper correction below $200 in Q1 2026. This dual scenario reflects the neutral nature of symmetrical triangles—the direction depends on which side the breakout occurs. Traders should watch the triangle boundaries closely, as a confirmed breakout (with volume confirmation) often triggers rapid, sustained trend moves.

From current levels around $449 to $1,000, this represents about a 123% upside, while a drop to $200 signifies a 55% downside risk. The asymmetric risk-reward ratio (greater upside potential than downside risk) favors bulls at this stage, provided the upper boundary is convincingly broken. If only testing higher levels and then retreating, the pattern remains valid, and traders should await clearer signals.