Bitwise Anticipates Strong Crypto Rebound Following Prolonged Winter Capitulation

The crypto market has been locked in a deep, prolonged winter since early 2025, but signs suggest the downturn may be closer to its end as institutional flows mask pain, retail capitulates and sentiment reaches classic late-stage extremes.

Bitwise Predicts Crypto Winter Ending Soon, Setting up Next Bitcoin Rally

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, shared on social media platform X on Feb. 3, 2026, an extended assessment asserting that the crypto market entered a sustained winter in early 2025 and is likely closer to recovery than many participants believe.

Hougan wrote:

“We have been in a crypto winter since January 2025. Chances are, we’re closer to the end than the beginning.”

He expanded on the severity of the downturn by adding, “This is not a ‘ bull market correction’ or ‘a dip.’ It is a full-bore, 2022-like, Leonardo-DiCaprio-in-The-Revenant-style crypto winter—set into motion by factors ranging from excess leverage to widespread profit-taking by OGs.” The Bitwise executive contrasted current conditions with surface-level optimism around regulation and adoption, explaining that during past downturns in 2018 and 2022, favorable headlines failed to influence prices until sentiment fully reset.

He described falling prices, elevated fear readings, and widespread fatigue as defining features of late-stage crypto winters, arguing that rallies driven by hiring trends or bank involvement typically arrive well after the bottom forms.

Later in the post, Hougan detailed how institutional capital flows distorted perceptions of market health throughout 2025. He outlined performance differences among assets in the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index, noting that tokens with exchange-traded fund or digital asset treasury access fell far less than those without institutional channels. He observed, “Retail crypto has been in a brutal winter since January 2025. Institutions just papered over that truth for certain assets for a while.”

Read more: Regulation Turns Bullish: US Positioned as Global Hub for Crypto, DeFi, Derivatives

Hougan pointed to large-scale bitcoin accumulation by ETFs and corporate treasuries as a stabilizing force, while also referencing XRP’s legal clarity following its case with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Despite the ongoing downturn, he expressed confidence in the longer-term outlook, concluding:

“I think we’re going to come roaring back sooner rather than later. Heck, it’s been winter since January 2025. Spring is surely coming soon.”

FAQ ⏰

• When did Matt Hougan say the crypto winter began?

Hougan said the crypto market entered a sustained winter in January 2025.

• Why does Hougan believe this is a true crypto winter?

He cited excess leverage, profit-taking by OGs, falling prices and extreme investor fatigue.

• How did institutions affect crypto prices in 2025?

Institutional ETFs and treasury buying supported certain assets while retail markets collapsed.

• What signals suggest the crypto winter may be ending?

Hougan pointed to late-stage fear, exhaustion and historical patterns that precede recoveries.