Bitcoin's year-end target price is 150,000! Bernstein: No large-scale leverage collapse has occurred

Research firm Bernstein maintains a Bitcoin price target of $150,000 by the end of 2026, stating that the current dip is the least threatening downturn in trading history. The analyst team points out that recent weakness stems from a shift in market sentiment rather than a fundamental collapse, and this sell-off has not involved leverage crashes, exchange failures, or systemic vulnerabilities. Institutional support remains solid, with spot ETFs, corporate finance, and mainstream asset management participation unchanged. Miner debt structures are healthy enough to withstand a prolonged downturn.

The Safest Correction in History: All Three Major Crisis Signals Absent

Bernstein’s assessment reveals a key fact: this Bitcoin price correction is fundamentally different from past major crashes. In previous bear markets, Bitcoin often plummeted due to specific systemic events, including leverage liquidations, exchange bankruptcies, or protocol-level security breaches. However, in the current market environment, all three crisis signals are absent.

First, a leverage crash has not occurred. The May 2021 “519 Crash” and the Terra/Luna collapse in 2022 were both accompanied by massive leverage liquidations, with hundreds of billions of dollars in contracts forcibly closed within hours. In contrast, while Bitcoin futures open interest has decreased, there have been no panic chain reactions of liquidations. This indicates that market participants’ leverage levels are relatively healthy, and investors are not overextending.

Second, exchange systems remain stable. The collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014 and the bankruptcy of FTX in 2022 triggered systemic confidence crises. But in this correction, mainstream exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken are operating normally, user funds are safe, and withdrawals are smooth. This infrastructure stability is unmatched in the past.

Third, there are no security vulnerabilities at the protocol level. Since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009, there has never been a successful double-spend attack or major consensus-layer flaw. This price correction involves no technical issues; it is purely a short-term fluctuation driven by macro environment and market sentiment.

Core Differences Between Recent Correction and Historical Crashes

Healthy leverage structure: Futures financing rates remain neutral, with no large-scale forced liquidations

Mature infrastructure: Mainstream exchanges operate stably, custody services are robust

Institutional holdings firm: ETF outflows are limited, corporate finances have not panicked and sold off

This structural health indicates that Bitcoin has evolved from a retail-driven speculative casino into a mature market with institutional-level risk management. Bernstein concludes that this correction should be viewed as a normal cyclical adjustment rather than a systemic crisis.

Institutional Support as Solid as a Rock: ETFs and Corporate Finances as a Moat

The most notable structural change in the Bitcoin market is the deep involvement of institutional investors. Bernstein emphasizes that participation in spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate financial strategies, and major asset management firms provides unprecedented support for Bitcoin’s price. This institutional backing is the core foundation for the $150,000 target in 2026.

Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, over $60 billion in assets have been managed. Despite recent market volatility, ETF outflows have been moderate, with no panic redemptions. This suggests that institutional and retail investors investing via ETFs are mostly adopting long-term allocation strategies rather than short-term speculation. Mainstream products like BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC have established a stable bridge between traditional finance and Bitcoin.

Corporate financial strategies also demonstrate resilience. MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Block hold over 500,000 BTC collectively, worth billions of dollars. Bernstein’s analysis indicates that these leading companies have built debt structures capable of resisting long-term downturns. MicroStrategy’s convertible debt financing allows it to weather market lows without forced sales, serving as a replicable model for other firms.

Participation from major asset management firms further consolidates institutional support. Beyond ETF products, Fidelity, Invesco, and VanEck are actively developing Bitcoin-related investment tools and research reports. This comprehensive institutional involvement has transformed Bitcoin from a fringe asset into a mainstream component of investment portfolios.

Miner financial health is also robust. Analysts closely monitor potential miner sell-offs but find that mining companies have diversified their business to reduce risk. Many have shifted some power resources to AI data centers, decreasing reliance on Bitcoin production and minimizing forced sales pressure. This business model innovation means miners are no longer a primary source of market sell pressure.

Liquidity, Not Hedging: The Correct Understanding of Bitcoin’s Characteristics

Bernstein clarifies a key point regarding investor concerns that Bitcoin’s recent underperformance relative to gold indicates weakness: Bitcoin is primarily an asset sensitive to liquidity, not a traditional hedge. This qualitative understanding is crucial for interpreting Bitcoin’s price behavior.

Gold has established its safe-haven status over thousands of years, often performing strongly during geopolitical crises and financial market turmoil. In contrast, while some supporters call Bitcoin “digital gold,” its price behavior more closely resembles high-beta tech stocks. When global liquidity is abundant and interest rates are low, Bitcoin tends to perform well. When liquidity tightens and rates rise, Bitcoin usually faces pressure.

This liquidity sensitivity is not a flaw but a natural feature of Bitcoin as an emerging asset class. Although financial stress has shifted returns toward precious metals and AI stocks, Bernstein expects improved liquidity to benefit Bitcoin via ETF channels and corporate financing mechanisms. When the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy in future rate-cut cycles, Bitcoin could experience explosive growth.

Historical data shows a high positive correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity indicators like M2 money supply growth. The 2020-2021 bull market occurred amid massive quantitative easing by central banks worldwide. The current correction aligns with tightening global monetary policy. Understanding this relationship allows investors to more accurately forecast Bitcoin’s medium-term trend.

Refuting AI and Quantum Threats: A Solid Technical Foundation

There are two prevailing narratives about long-term risks to Bitcoin: that artificial intelligence development will weaken its relevance, and that quantum computing will crack Bitcoin’s encryption. Bernstein systematically refutes both.

Regarding AI threats, analysts note that autonomous software agents operating in the digital economy require programmable financial infrastructure, which blockchain networks are better suited to provide than traditional banking systems constrained by proprietary interfaces and outdated technology. AI agents need 24/7 operation, real-time settlement, and permissionless payments—core advantages of Bitcoin and other blockchain networks. Therefore, AI development will not weaken cryptocurrencies; it may actually drive demand.

Quantum computing threats are recognized as a long-term consideration, but Bernstein points out that all critical digital infrastructure faces similar cryptographic challenges. Transitioning to quantum-resistant standards will occur in tandem across financial systems and government networks, with Bitcoin adapting alongside other major platforms. In fact, the Bitcoin community is already researching post-quantum cryptography, and protocol upgrades will be implemented via community consensus once the threat materializes.

Three Pillars Supporting the $150,000 Target in 2026

Bernstein concludes that institutional adoption patterns, regulatory developments, and infrastructure maturity make the current environment fundamentally different from past bear markets. The firm sees no evidence that this economic downturn threatens Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. The $150,000 target rests on three pillars: sustained institutional capital inflows, improved global regulatory environment, and Bitcoin’s potential for explosive growth as a liquidity-sensitive asset in the next easing cycle.