Bitwise CIO, who most frequently claims that "the four-year cycle is dead," now admits that cryptocurrencies are in a bear market due to the "four-year cycle."
BlockBeats News, February 11 — Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, stated in an interview with CNBC that the “four-year cycle” is the reason for the crypto market entering a bear market, a phenomenon that has occurred three times in the history of cryptocurrency markets. “People always want to find a single culprit for the current Bitcoin pullback. But there isn’t just one villain,” he said on the ETF Edge program on Monday.
Hougan believes that investors have recently been inclined to allocate funds to other popular investment targets, including gold and artificial intelligence stocks, rather than cryptocurrencies. “There are some quantum computing risks. The market is also concerned about Fed Chair nominee Kevin Woor,” he said. “In a bear market, all these factors are amplified.”
However, Hougan thinks that Bitcoin’s weakness should not ultimately undermine the momentum of ETF development focused on cryptocurrencies. He believes that the current dominant force in the crypto market is a “self-fulfilling prophecy.”
“Underneath the surface, there is good news, but it’s happening more slowly. Therefore, I don’t believe that the financialization of Bitcoin fundamentally changes its scarcity argument,” Hougan said. “It may alter some intraday movements or short-term trading dynamics, but it won’t change a basic fact: there are only 21 million Bitcoins. All derivative demand must eventually be transmitted to the spot market.”
It is worth noting that Matt Hougan publicly stated multiple times in late 2025 (especially around December) via social media, blogs, podcasts, and interviews that the “four-year cycle is dead.” At that time, Bitcoin prices were still high, and Hougan’s tone was optimistic and institutionalized, emphasizing “this time is different” — claiming that the cycle was “killed” by institutional funds and mature markets.
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