Regulatory Storm Brewing? The US SEC and CFTC Keep a Close Watch on the Prediction Market
The prediction market in the United States has rapidly emerged in recent years, with trading volume and user numbers continuously increasing. In response, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Thursday that the prediction market has become a “significant issue” closely monitored by regulators.
Walking the Line Between “Gambling” and “Financial Products”
When asked by a senator about the recent rapid growth of the prediction industry, Paul Atkins said that this is not only a focus of his personal concern but also a top priority for Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig.
He said, “Prediction markets are one of the areas where regulatory overlap may occur.”
Over the past year, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have expanded rapidly, especially during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, even becoming a more prominent indicator than traditional polls.
Prediction markets operate through “event contracts,” allowing users to bet on election outcomes, economic data, sports events, and other specific occurrences. However, whether these products are considered derivatives or are classified as gambling or betting under state laws has become a core controversy, sparking jurisdictional disputes between federal and state governments.
Platform operators argue that, under the Commodity Exchange Act, event contracts are derivatives and should fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC; meanwhile, multiple state governments in the U.S. have begun lawsuits, accusing certain platforms—particularly Kalshi, which involves sports-related transactions—of potentially violating local gambling and betting laws.
Paul Atkins stated that prediction markets “still primarily fall within the jurisdiction of the CFTC,” but the two major regulatory agencies will continue to cooperate. Regarding the possibility of establishing clearer rules, he responded, “We will continue to observe.”
He emphasized, “I believe we have sufficient statutory authority. Securities are securities, regardless of how they are packaged. Whether certain products in prediction markets constitute securities depends on the specific wording and nuances of the contract terms.”
Meanwhile, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig also shared his views on prediction markets during a Bloomberg “Odd Lots” podcast episode:
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