Gate News message: On April 13, on-chain data shows that the “giant whale” with the address 0xa7d1…b824 has cumulatively bought $527k worth of bets on “the Iranian regime will fall on June 30,” and it is currently down by $345k. Previously, this giant whale had placed $176k worth of bets on “the U.S. military will invade Iran before March 31” and $148k worth of bets on “the Iranian regime will fall before March 31,” and both predictions failed.
Under the market’s determining rules, the event’s “Yes” condition is extremely strict: it requires that the current governing system of the Islamic Republic of Iran (e.g., the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and the Revolutionary Guards led by clergy) be dissolved, paralyzed, or completely replaced by a completely different governance system before June 30, 2026. The basis for determination must be a consensus among widely recognized authoritative media, confirming that the regime has lost effective control over most of the population. The rules explicitly state that ordinary political elections, internal reforms, or power handovers do not meet the determining conditions. Even if an internal coup occurs, as long as the core structure of the Islamic Republic is preserved, the market will still settle as “No.” In addition, the loss of some territory or challenges from anti-government armed groups does not constitute a “fall” either unless it results in the regime being unable to manage the majority of the population nationwide.
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