Trump vượt qua Fed trực tiếp QE! Mua trái phiếu thế chấp vay 2000 tỷ giảm lãi suất vay mua nhà

Trump announces $200 billion mortgage bond purchase plan, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac each buying $100 billion, without congressional approval. Aims to lower mortgage rates to 6.16%. Similar to 2008 QE but led by president rather than central bank. Housing crisis heavily damaged approval ratings, Fed cut rates by 75 basis points, yet mortgage rates remain elevated.

Operating Mechanism and Power Boundaries of Trump’s Version of QE

Trump posted on “Truth Social” stating he is “directing relevant representatives to purchase $200 billion worth of mortgage bonds”. “This move will push mortgage rates down, reduce monthly payments, thereby increasing people’s home-buying capacity,” Trump wrote. “This is one of several measures I am rolling out to restore housing affordability, which is precisely what the Biden administration destroyed.”

He added that during his first term he decided not to sell Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, allowing these two institutions to accumulate “$200 billion in cash,” and he announced this decision precisely “based on this reason.” This statement reveals Trump’s forward-thinking layout—preserving the two entities during 2017-2021 left ammunition for current policy operations.

Bill Pulte, director of the U.S. Housing Finance Agency, told the Financial Times that this bond purchase will be executed jointly by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These government-sponsored enterprises’ core function is to acquire mortgages from lending institutions and repackage them as mortgage-backed securities. “We will fully leverage Fannie Mae’s strength to reverse the damage caused by former President Biden over the past four years, with specific measures including but not limited to strategic, large-scale purchases of mortgage bonds,” Pulte said. He added that this measure does not require congressional approval.

Under existing agreements between Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the U.S. Treasury Department, mortgage investments held by these two companies (each) cannot exceed $225 billion. As of November 2025, both companies hold approximately $124 billion each in these investment portfolios, meaning they can each purchase an additional $100 billion in mortgage-backed securities. This figure exactly aligns with Trump’s announced $200 billion plan, showing this is the maximum scale executable within existing regulatory frameworks.

Three Major Differences Between Trump’s QE and Fed QE

Decision-making body differs: Trump directs the two entities through executive order, Fed QE decided independently by FOMC

Funding source differs: The two entities use their own cash, Fed QE prints money from thin air to purchase assets

Single target asset: Only purchases mortgage bonds, Fed QE also includes Treasury bonds and corporate debt

Political motivation apparent: Directly responds to housing crisis to boost approval ratings, Fed emphasizes policy independence

The Stubbornness of 6.16% Mortgage Rates and Policy Dilemma

Despite multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts, the currently most popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average rate remains as high as 6.16%. The Fed lowered the federal funds rate target range by 75 basis points last year, bringing short-term rates to the 3.5-3.75% range. This “short-end down, long-end stable” phenomenon reflects market concerns about persistent inflation and fiscal deficits.

Mortgage rates typically correlate with 10-year Treasury yields rather than directly with the federal funds rate. When markets expect long-term inflation pressure or continued government debt expansion, 10-year Treasury yields remain elevated, and mortgage rates follow suit. This explains why a 75 basis point Fed rate cut resulted in only a marginal mortgage rate decline from 7% to 6.16%, far less than expected.

Trump previously pressured the Federal Reserve for significant rate cuts to stimulate the economy and reduce borrowers’ costs. But the Fed emphasizes policy independence and refuses to bow to political pressure. This stalemate prompted Trump to seek alternatives, directly purchasing mortgage bonds through the two entities, bypassing the Fed to achieve the goal of lowering mortgage rates.

His large-scale bond purchase plan proposed this time mirrors the Fed’s policy measures following the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, Fed policymakers purchased bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to fortify the financial system and stimulate economic recovery. However, the key difference is that 2008 QE was an emergency measure responding to financial system collapse, while 2026 Trump QE is an active intervention when the financial system is stable, to lower mortgage rates and boost political support.

Housing Crisis and Trump’s Political Calculation on Approval Ratings

Since the pandemic, prices of various necessities have surged significantly, with many Americans stating they struggle to maintain a decent standard of living, leading to criticism of Trump. It’s worth noting that this American president previously claimed the housing affordability crisis was a “hoax.” But facts prove that housing cost pressures, including elevated mortgage rates, have become one of the most pressing challenges facing American lawmakers.

This policy shift reflects political pressure Trump faces. The 2026 midterm elections are approaching, and housing affordability directly influences middle-class voters’ voting intentions. If mortgage rates can drop below 5% before the elections, it would significantly boost Trump and Republicans’ electoral prospects. This political calculation makes the $200 billion QE look more like an electoral strategy than economic policy.

From a market perspective, $200 billion in mortgage bond purchases will drive bond prices up and yields down, thereby lowering mortgage rates. But this artificial intervention may distort market price signals, and if inflation resurfaces, the Fed will be forced to raise rates again, offsetting Trump’s QE effects. This policy contradiction may emerge in the second half of 2026.

Overall, Trump’s personal QE marks direct intervention of executive power in monetary policy. Though the $200 billion scale doesn’t match the Fed’s historical QE, it sets a precedent for presidents bypassing central banks to implement QE-like policies. The long-term impacts on Fed independence and market confidence warrant attention.