Bitwise and GraniteShares have filed with the SEC to launch ETF funds linked to prediction contracts for US election outcomes.
Bitwise has submitted a prospectus for a new ETF series under the PredictionShares brand, consisting of six funds listed on NYSE Arca. The fund structure pays returns based on binary outcomes:
- Two funds based on the 2028 US presidential election results (each corresponding to a winning party)
- Two funds based on the 2026 Senate election results
- Two funds based on the House of Representatives election results
The funds invest at least 80% of their assets in binary prediction contracts traded on exchanges regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The contracts pay $1 if the event occurs and $0 if it does not, meaning the fund could lose nearly all its value if the prediction is wrong.
Meanwhile, GraniteShares has also filed for six ETFs with similar structures based on US election results.
Commenting on this trend, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said that the process of “ETF-izing everything” continues to expand. Previously, Roundhill also filed for a set of election prediction market ETFs with a similar structure.
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