Benefiting from soaring oil prices and a sudden cooling of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut expectations, the US stablecoin giant Circle’s stock price has recently surged strongly, rising nearly 8% on Tuesday to $103.71. This not only hits a nearly four-month high but also surpasses the $100 target set by Mizuho Securities. Analysts point out that changes in the overall economic environment are becoming a powerful catalyst for Circle’s valuation.
Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins, in their research report, raised Circle’s target price from $90 to $100. Although they maintain a “Neutral” rating, they are more optimistic about the company’s profit outlook.
They noted that recent tensions in Middle Eastern geopolitics have driven crude oil prices higher, up 6% over five trading days, with a year-to-date increase of 24%. If oil prices remain high, it could intensify inflationary pressures, potentially reducing the likelihood of the Fed starting rate cuts in 2026.
For Circle, the direction of interest rates is undoubtedly the “lifeline” affecting profits. If the Fed maintains a “higher for longer” interest rate path, the interest earned from USDC reserve assets—Circle’s core revenue source—would be more substantial. Mizuho analysts estimate that the fading expectation of rate cuts would only boost Circle’s revenue in 2026 and 2027 by about 1%, but the positive impact on valuation could be greater.
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market’s probability of no rate cuts throughout 2026 nearly doubled in just one day. The analysts stated in the report that this “right-tail risk”—the increased likelihood of extreme bullish or profit events—could lead to higher valuation premiums for Circle.
Despite the positive macroeconomic signals, Mizuho still warns that the stablecoin market faces long-term competition and commodification pressures. As regulatory clarity improves, more issuers of dollar-pegged stablecoins may enter the market, potentially squeezing profit margins.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
On-chain EWY's largest long position hit the rebound of the Korean stock market, with a return on holdings reaching 115%
On the Hyperliquid platform, the largest long whale holding the iShares Korea ETF mapping contract cash: EWY successfully turned a profit, with unrealized gains reaching $310,000, a position size of $6.42 million, and an average price of $126. After a rebound, EWY's price this morning rose to $134, a 6% increase.
GateNews7h ago
Circle has minted 2 billion USDC over the past 2 days
Odaily Planet Daily reports that, according to Lookonchain monitoring, stablecoin issuer Circle has minted 2 billion USDC in the past 2 days.
GateNews17h ago
European banking giants join forces: Can the euro stablecoin reshape the global crypto landscape?
The article discusses the background and significance of the Qivalis alliance launching a euro-pegged stablecoin, marking Europe's banking system's response to on-chain finance and aiming to counter the influence of dollar stablecoins. The alliance consists of 12 major banks, emphasizing a robust reserve mechanism to attract institutional investors and promote the application of stablecoins in the digital asset space. The article suggests that future on-chain finance may evolve into a multi-sovereign clearing structure, rather than being centered solely around the US dollar.
PANews20h ago
OSL StableHub Launches USDGO with Limited-Time 100% Annualized Incentive
OSL Group's StableHub launches a corporate-grade compliant USD stablecoin USDGO holding reward campaign. New users can receive up to 1000 USDGO with a 100% annualized reward, while existing users enjoy an 18% annualized reward. This campaign runs from March 10, 2026, to April 10, 2026. StableHub supports multiple stablecoins and USD exchanges and has opened spot trading for USDGO.
GateNews21h ago
Oil prices surge, interest rate cut expectations cool down! Circle benefits as the target price breaks $100
U.S. stablecoin giant Circle recently surged nearly 8% in stock price, hitting a four-month high, due to soaring oil prices and a cooling of interest rate cut expectations. Mizuho Securities raised its target price to $100, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, but became more optimistic about profit prospects. Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates high, Circle's revenue will benefit accordingly, but market competition and regulatory pressures should still be watched carefully.
区块客03-04 08:35
